'Twas the Night Before Christmas
December 2023
’Twas the night before Christmas ’neath a nearly full moon,
And I knew that Santa would be landing quite soon.
So as in years past, by the fireside did I wait
When the whoosh of his sleigh proved he wouldn’t be late.
He announced his arrival with a chuckle and grin,
And if I was ready, he’d gladly begin
Sharing his insights that were so often profound
His recall of events rarely failed to astound.
He first spoke of surprises he judged most delightful
Inflation, he noted, had turned somewhat less frightful.
But last year’s price hikes weren’t even partly reversed
And with prices so high we still feel that we’re cursed
The job market’s still strong, unemployment’s still low,
So, consumer spending has continued to grow.
And from the comfort of home more people now work
Making them feel like they’ve won a valued new perk.
Santa laughed at those who deemed this a soft landing
He chortled: “That means we’re not moving but just standing!”
“Be they hard or soft, landings come at a flight’s end,
While staying aloft means expansion will extend.”
But not all sectors have fared as well as the rest,
The housing market, for one, has been put to the test.
With mortgage rates standing near a thirty-year high,
Far fewer home-seekers have been able to buy.
High int’rest rates are now the markets’ obsession,
They fear a Fed misstep might bring on recession.
Markets too send signals the Fed’s often heeded
When it sorts market “wants” from what’s really needed.
The markets now hope Fed tight’ning’s come to an end
But still-high inflation do high bond yields portend.
So the war on inflation has not yet been won
And the Fed dare not proclaim its job is now done.
Policy mistakes are not the Fed’s turf alone.
Big government too has for much to atone.
Budget control’s been a myth for decades and counting
As spending runs wild, red-ink and debt keeps mounting.
DEI, ESG and too many things “woke”
Have set many good firms on a path to go broke.
Crime and corruption has dulled some big cities’ pull
Leaving too many buildings more empty than full.
“No more fossil-fuel cars” is something we’ve been told
But dealers have thousands of EVs not being sold.
Mandates like this rarely prove to be much of a fix,
We’d be better off using just carrots and sticks.
The craze over crypto has cooled or so it seems
Instead AI’s the stuff of the tech sector’s dreams.
It’s e’en caught the fancy of my overworked elves
And they’re making more now than before by themselves.
Then Santa turned angry, and his voice loudly raged
Cursing the wars in which much of the world’s now engaged.
“This is just madness with neither reason nor rhyme!”
Still, he swore he’d not let it spoil this holiday time.
And then he declared he’d said enough for one night,
“’Tis time I resume my yearly Christmas eve flight!”
In that instant he bid me farewell for this year:
“May your days bring you plenty of hope, joy and cheer!
Twas the night before Christmas
December 2022
”Twas the night before Christmas, the year twenty-two,
I was ready at last and had naught more to do.
My tree stood bedecked with bulbs and lights shining bright
Like a beacon for Santa that dark wintry night.
From a short nap by the fire, I woke in surprise
And found myself gazing at big, round, cheery eyes.
At once, I knew they were Santa’s – he’s really here,
And ready, I thought, to spread some holiday cheer.
But instead, Santa began to loudly speak out
On a wide range of things he’d been thinking about.
“This year’s been hard,” he said, “as I’m sure you well know.
Inflation’s too high and growth is painfully slow.”
“My supply chain is still clogged – it’s totally jammed
And long overtime hours, have the elves feeling slammed.”
“Those elves, who ’round the clock do so faithfully toil,
Suffer the cold in my shop with no heating oil.”
“We’ve been told that from fossil fuel we must abstain
So a carbon-free world we might someday obtain.”
“Not using oil now is both stupid and tragic.
Because only my sleigh is powered by magic.”
Santa’s voice got louder, his cheeks turned rosy red
As he harshly decried dumb mistakes by the Fed.
“It kept interest rates too low for way too long
And its buying up bonds just compounded the wrong."
“While the Fed dithered, inflation got out of hand,
Forcing it at last to take a much stronger stand.
And now the Fed’s pushing rates steadily higher,
So that price expectations don’t also catch fire.”
“All this makes the Fed look like that nasty old Grinch
As rising rates have borrowers feeling the pinch.
So high mortgage rates threaten a deep housing slump
As new lending stalls and mortgage foreclosures jump.”
“This sharp rise in rates is a heavy toll taking
So deeper troubles might well be in the making.
Indeed, the yield curve is so steeply inverted,
It predicts a recession can’t be averted.”
Santa spoke then of other things he views with alarm
That threaten our way of life with unbounded harm.
He lamented aloud the mess at the border
And how unpunished crime wreaks civil disorder.
But Santa too noted that some things have improved.
Covid’s less a threat though not completely removed.
In myriad ways we’ve slowed the virus’s spread,
But the lockdowns made problems that still lie ahead.
The craze over crypto has long seemed confusing,
So the FTX failure seems most amusing.
At that, Santa let out a deep hearty chuckle,
As his fat belly jiggled o’er his belt buckle.
But when Santa quit laughing his words got more stern
Noting that from failures there’s so much we can learn.
“Follow this simple rule in the years just ahead,
Avoid too risky assets, seek safe ones instead.”
But then in a snap Santa declared his job done,
“I must leave here and resume my Christmas eve run.”
And as he flew off into the wintry night air
“Merry Christmas to all!” he did loudly declare.
------------------------------
Twas the night before Christmas
December 2021
’Twas the night before Christmas, now just hours away,
But Santa had problems with his magical sleigh.
His reindeer were hungry and not ready to fly,
Their feed was lost in the broken chain of supply.
Ships by the score were for weeks unable to reach
The east port of Savannah or the west in Long Beach.
When, at last, Santa found food for his hungry herd,
Their long wintry ride now could proceed undeterred.
And so, he set out on this cold Christmas eve night,
Determined to bring the world great joy and delight.
But as large snowflakes below him drifted and swirled,
He began pondering the weird state of the world.
He saw it firsthand o’er the long Texas border
Where the scene was one of chaotic disorder.
The lack of control seem’d such a sorry disgrace,
With thousands of refugees all over the place.
So much has changed during these last harried two years,
As Covid panic took hold on great waves of fear.
Governments had decreed ’cross states, cities and towns,
Strict new sets of rules and most distressing lockdowns.
By, in effect, putting so much commerce on ice,
These actions would exact a brutally high price.
But no mandated rules or strictures unbending,
Have done much to hasten the pandemic’s ending.
When Big Pharma brought out new vaccines at “warp speed,”
We hoped a jab or two would be all that we’d need.
But then came Delta and its breakthrough infection,
And the caseload spike raised new fears and dejection.
In this new Covid world, there’s unending distress,
That’s made our whole economy one giant mess.
Of great concern is the high rate of inflation
Caused by the Fed’s excess of money creation.
For nearly two years the Fed had propped up demand,
And let its balance sheet too rapidly expand.
It also misjudged inflation’s early uptick,
Blaming transitory factors it said wouldn’t stick.
But now the Fed Chair’s singing a bit diff’rent tune,
Admitting high inflation won’t go away soon.
So the odds now tilt to an earlier tight’ning,
A prospect the markets will likely judge fright’ning.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s urging a new spending spree
Claiming his “build back better” plan will be debt-free.
But most of us know that simply cannot be true,
There will always be some cost whatever we do.
Like aid that’d been given those whose jobs had been lost,
Brought unforeseen dangers and surprising high cost.
For when lockdowns were eased, some chose still not to work
Preferring instead to keep their jobless-pay perk.
So supply behind demand continues to lag,
And the broken supply-chain’s an on-going drag.
In truth, big-spending plans are needed no longer
But more freedom would likely help things get stronger.
But the state of the world Santa could ponder no more,
It was time to get back to his Christmas eve chore.
And I heard him cry out in a voice loud and clear,
“To all, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!”
-------------------------------------------
’Twas the night before Christmas
December 2020
’Twas the night before Christmas, all calm and serene,
As moonlight bathed the marsh grass in a silv’ry sheen.
But my spirit was troubled and lacking in cheer
For we’d come to the end of a truly bizarre year.
First, we’d endured a month-long impeachment trial
Brought by those annoyed mainly by Donald Trump’s style.
Although for acquittal most Senators voted
To Trump’s removal would his foes stay devoted.
At the year’s start, our economy was quite strong,
But no one foresaw how fast it’d go terribly wrong.
For, unseen to all, a global pandemic did loom
That would bring a quick end to our decade-long boom.
Hoping to avert a fate we’d all come to dread,
We halted most commerce to slow the Covid’s spread.
With shutdowns and lockdowns the world over decreed,
Economies collapsed with incredible speed.
Policymakers quickly sprang into action
Budgeting trillions to give spending some traction
The Fed did its part, setting interest rates low
And vowing also to let its balance sheet grow.
That these bold and quick actions did help I’m quite sure,
But the pandemic’s left wounds that will surely endure.
Dining and travel could take years to recover,
While new ways of spending we’ll surely discover.
School closures and remote learning have come at high cost
And it’ll take years to make up what our school kids have lost.
The real estate market has also been altered,
As big cities shrink ’cause their leaders have faltered.
We’ll keep meeting remotely with Facetime or Zoom ,
Though something gets lost when we’re not in the same room.
Social distance and masking have become the new norm
And we’re told the virus will spread unless we conform.
Daily, we heard the count of deaths and new cases
All duly sorted by region, ages, and races.
Rarely though did the press give context or perspective,
So the policy response too oft proved defective.
The self-righteous claimed we must -- “follow the science.”
And insisted their rules get total compliance.
But true science is complex with many dimensions,
That advances through debate and often dissensions.
And if a pandemic wasn’t enough of a curse,
Late in the Spring things took a turn for the worse.
When Mister George Floyd died ’neath the knee of a cop
The outrage that followed brought chaos no one could stop.
Protesters and marchers in cities large and small
Cried out demands of “equal justice for all.”
But too often all that hollering and hooting
Gave way to lawless riots, arson and looting.
This deadly brew of disease and social unrest
Has put long-held traditions and norms to the test.
And when we tried voting modes not used in the past,
We found more ballots than ever had somehow been cast.
Trump challenged the outcome through appeal and recount
But Biden’s vote margin prov’d too wide to surmount.
So early next year a new President takes charge,
Still the challenges ahead remain just as large.
Our future will again be more hopeful and bright,
When, at last, we can end this dread Covid blight.
And thanks to “Warp Speed,” that day soon may arrive,
And, once more in good health we will prosper and thrive.
December 15, 2019
'Twas the Night Before Christmas
’Twas the night before Christmas year twenty-nineteen
And the house is all decked out in white, red and green.
I could hear distant church bells so faintly ringing
While nearby carolers roamed joyously singing.
With white-tailed bucks prancing ’cross my well-trimmed front yard
’Twas a scene you might find on some holiday card.
But this peaceful setting couldn’t stay my wand’ring mind
So I now ponder’d the year we’re leaving behind.
I’m someone who’s spent life by markets distracted
So it’s easy to guess where my thoughts were attracted
The soaring stock market has brought both wonder and awe
Almost defying economic logic and law.
Our economy’s been good if not quite roaring
But strong enough to keep those stock prices soaring.
So the stock market, like some fast rising tide
Has brought improvements ranging so far and so wide.
Unemployment’s the lowest in fifty long years,
As an abundance of jobs has shattered old fears.
With confidence high, folks are happily spending
But bus’ness investment has downward been trending.
Amidst much uncertainty ’bout tariffs and trade,
Many investments were either shelved or delayed.
And an oil-drilling pause was a bit overdue
But it’s quite likely a pick-up soon will ensue.
The Fed cut rates when the yield curve inverted
So an ominous downturn could be averted
And now the Fed thinks it’s done just quite enough
But stands ready to act if the going gets rough.
While our economy has continued to grow
Nearly everywhere else growth’s been painfully slow.
Even where int’rest rates below zero remain,
Economies continue to struggle and strain.
Meanwhile in Britain, Brexit seems likely now done
The argument is over – the Tories have won.
And soon all of Europe will face some big change
To long-standing rules that soon must they rearrange.
Our flound’ring government’s too a source of distress,
Overlooking big problems it ought to address.
So government spending remains out of control,
With unfunded entitlements that’re taking a toll.
And while tax receipts have been steadily rising,
Reaching budget balance takes program downsizing.
But these issues languish as Congress spends too much time
Searching for some Trump misdemeanor or high crime.
So this impeachment obsession comes at a cost,
That’s taken the form of opportunities lost.
So the news cycle grinds on with little or no heed.
To real issues whose solutions we very much need.
In all of this lie the keys to the coming election
So on what grounds will voters base their selection?
If this coming election tracks those of the past
“It’s the economy, stupid!” says how votes will be cast.
Now this crystal-ball gazing’s making me weary
So it’s time for a wish I hope you’ll find cheery
May the new year ahead bring you joy and good health
And a market that continues growing your wealth.
----------------------
December 16, 2018
’Twas the Night Before Christmas
by
David H. Resler
’Twas the night before Christmas and a nearly full moon
Lit the night sky for Santa, who’d be here quite soon.
As I waited, I pondered the wondrous past year
And all of the things that gave me so much to cheer.
Into compartments all the year’s news did I sort
So I could form, in my mind, this year-end report,
Which would help -- as in so many Christmas eves past --
Provide the backdrop for my year-ahead forecast.
I look first to the markets for critical clues
Because they are quite good at processing the news.
One year ago, for instance, the bull market implied
An economy whose vigor could not be denied.
But now the markets’ message looks a bit muddled
Leaving us all more than a tad bit befuddled.
As investors react to news deemed most deserving
They’ve wrought wild stock market swings oh so unnerving.
Though most data show the economy’s still strong
There’s also a growing list of what might go wrong.
Topping the list is much slower growth overseas
And fears ‘bout a trade war amplify this unease.
Trump says “fair” is key to a free-trade world order
And he wants a big wall to strengthen our border.
While his threats of new tariffs the market despises
His tough talk has too brought some welcome surprises.
A new Mexico-Canada trade deal’s been done
And from China some concessions seem to be won.
But some still think these tactics pose too grave a threat
When foreigners hold so much of our nation’s debt.
’Bout the Fed, President Trump too tweets his concern
But the past teaches lessons he’d do well to learn.
The Fed must be free to set its own policy course
Without seeming to bow to political force.
But now the Fed’s struggling with what words it should use
To guide expectations ‘bout its policy views.
But there isn’t much worth in these semantic debates
’Cause the Fed must let facts show the right path for rates.
So if job growth is strong while inflation stays low
A slow rise in rates would let the economy grow.
But if the now-flat yield curve begins to invert
The Fed would wisely heed this recession alert.
But for now it seems that the future we face
Is for growth to remain at a moderate pace.
And when into my crystal ball I more deeply gaze
I see myriad things that are sure to amaze.
I see scientists harvesting data from Mars
While here on Earth we’re riding in driverless cars.
Five-G internet will be the new wireless norm
And medical advances will health care transform.
Artificial intelligence is such a big thing
I can’t even imagine what all it will bring.
But like most things past science advances have brought,
Improving our welfare is more likely than not.
This future world will be here sooner than later
To make our future Christmas eves even greater.
So with “Joy to the World” I wish all a good night
May the New Year bring you joy and endless delight.
------------------------
December 18, 2017
A Visit from Santa
by
David H. Resler
’Twas the night before Christmas at nearly high tide
In the bright moonlight, the marsh seemed endlessly wide
In awe and enthralled by this peaceful night scene
My eyes grew heavy and I felt calm and serene.
Then in this half-conscious state I sensed something weird.
Was I just dreaming or had Santa really appeared?
I had my answer when the old man finally spoke:
“I’ve brought you an odd gift – don’t think it’s a joke”
“I’ll give you my take on this year now nearly passed,”
“In hopes it will help you make a better forecast.”
Although my forecasting days long ago ended
I accepted the offer he’d kindly extended.
What I tell you right now I did not fantasize
This tale is the one seen through old Santa’s eyes.
His smile grew broader and his bright eyes opened wide
When he spoke of the stock market’s sky-rocket ride.
“Stock prices,” he said “keep reaching new record highs,”
“ ’Cause the economy’s been such a pleasant surprise.”
As business got stronger, more workers were hired,
People felt good and soon a boom in spending transpired.
So at its fastest in years did G-D-P grow,
And unemployment now stands at a two-decade low.
But some skeptics think this is all mere illusion --
And just the result of some collective delusion.
Just one year ago did these same “experts” opine --
The economy would falter and stock prices decline.
These doubters said then the markets must reckon with Trump
And when they do, we’ll slide into another deep slump.
But Santa and I think they’ve still got it all wrong
Scaling back poor regulations helped bus’ness get strong.
And of tax cuts and reforms the markets take heed
So G-D-P growth now seems to be picking up speed.
Santa then laughed that bitcoin’s price has gone berserk
Proving that block-chains as money really won’t work.
Speaking of money, policy is being re-set
To ensure that inflation remains not a threat.
Janet Yellen, who soon will depart as Fed Chair,
Showed patience that gave markets time to repair.
Her successor, Jay Powell, will likely take the same tack
Trying to ensure we stay on a healthy growth track.
Santa then chuckled ’bout how last year’s election
Has left many Trump foes feeling boundless dejection
So daily they grow more angry and bitter
As Trump taunts and provokes them by “tweeting” on Twitter
Santa noted too the failure of health-care reform
Was partly ‘cause Trump, as deal-maker, failed to perform.
The press seems obsessed by “facts” falsely created
So real policy issues are rarely debated
And as all sides focus on their arcane details,
They never make hard choices so gridlock prevails.
Our government’s now such a swamp – a partisan mess,
And that puts our future at grave risk of distress
Then without warning Santa looked tired and beat
And said that back north to the Pole he now must retreat.
As I thanked him profusely and bade him farewell
I swore that his Yule-tide message I’d happily tell.
I heard him shout as northward on a jet ski he sped,
“Merry Christmas and best wishes for the New Year Ahead!
--------------------------
December 15 ,2016
Hope Not Despair
by David Resler
’Twas the night before Christmas, the stars shining bright
Would light Santa’s way through the dark wintry night.
And I, with my shopping all done, sat down at last
To ponder some strange things from the most recent past.
For when I look back on the year twenty sixteen
I wonder in awe at things never before seen.
Mother Nature, for one, caught my full attention
With damage from Matthew too awesome to mention.
But mostly my thoughts on this brisk holiday eve
Turned to matters I still find so hard to believe.
And that was the rise of a political novice
Who will soon hold the world’s most powerful office.
When Donald Trump first did his intentions declare
Some saw just a TV star with wild golden hair.
The experts and pundits were vocal and quite sure
That this gadfly’s campaign could never endure.
His ideas, they said, were just bluster and bluff
But to his supporters Trump seem’d solid and tough.
He’s “No Mister Nice Guy” and they wanted a change
From the “too PC” world that’s so foreign and strange.
One by one, Trump mocked his foes as bad, worse, and worst
Vowing he alone would “put America first.”
It matter’d not if sometimes he’d get his facts wrong.
Trump voters cared only that his message was strong.
And after defeating the large G-O-P field
Trump, on election night, forced Hillary to yield.
Now the election’s over but what lies ahead?
The markets see hope but the Trump-haters see dread.
In the days since this year’s big election surprise
Stock prices keep on climbing to new record highs.
Such hope seems based on a judgement that’s sound
That a pro-growth policy mix soon will be found.
Less intrusion from government lies at the core,
With tax cuts and health care reforms also in store.
Pooling public and private funds we will invest
To make our roads, airports and bridges the world’s best.
The Trump team pledges too it will regulate less
And peel back the red-tape that’s an anti-growth stress.
The markets too it seems have reached the conclusion
That Trump will end lobby and crony collusion.
But not all of Trump’s plans deserve full-throated praise,
’Cause growth will be slower if new tariffs we raise.
And Trump must speak from his “bully-pulpit” with care
Trusting markets to sort out what’s right and what’s fair.
With stock market prices reaching ever new highs
The dollar’s FX value continues to rise.
So tricky policy choices soon must be made
If Mister Trump still wants better balance in trade.
.
The new President too must learn to live with a Fed
That steers its own course and will not be led.
And precisely because the outlook’s now brighter
The Fed’s once again setting credit terms tighter.
This strange unknown future has my head all a-spin
But I’m certain some big changes soon will begin.
But whatever’s on tap in the coming new year
Let’s embrace our future with hope and not fear.
---------------------------
December 19, 2015
My Crystal Ball from Santa
by
David H. Resler
’Twas the night before Christmas, the moon was near full,
Lifting the midnight high tide with its strong lunar pull.
As it cast a soft glow ’cross the low-country marsh,
The gentle salt-laden breeze felt soothing not harsh.
To my old Yankee eyes it seemed all so unreal,
But with a snow-free Christmas I’ll happily deal.
And whether warm air or cold on this winter night,
I just knew Santa’s red sleigh would soon be in sight.
And sure enough over the soft breeze could I hear,
Santa’s loud voice commanding his team of reindeer.
In wonder and awe I just stood there and stared
As the old elf held out a gift that for me he’d prepared.
When I asked, “What have you there? Is it for me?”
The jolly old man chuckled and said “Open and see.”
When I undid the bow on his neat little gift,
I found a large crystal ball that from its box did I lift.
Santa said then “Look deep in this magical ball,
And you’ll see what lies ahead for you -- and for all. ”
I did as he said and on this globe fix’d my gaze
And here’s what I saw in that orb’s milky white haze.
Instead of recession that’s some six years gone past,
I see very slow growth that seems likely to last.
And though the jobless rate’s now the lowest in years,
This new labor market is still fostering fears.
Because income from wages is still very weak,
Too many people see their own future as bleak.
And with an election year about to begin
This sad state of commerce is the focus of spin.
Jobs and unequal income do some try to conflate,
But the links are complex and don’t simply equate.
And some demagogues blame world trade for our woes,
Seeing other nations not as partners but foes.
But their argument’s wrong in both theory and fact.
Trade benefits all when in self-int’rest we act.
Still all can agree that we need not be content
With a growth rate that’s stuck at a mere two percent.
So I’m glad that in all this crystal-ball-gazing,
I saw how to reach a path far more amazing.
Back to a far simpler world we must find a way
Where growth-sapping forces can be just kept at bay.
From banking to health care to all sorts of commerce,
An excess of rules often makes matters much worse.
Our tax code’s too complex -- it is truly a mess.
It skews market signals and puts the system in stress.
If regulation and taxes we just could reform,
We might just get growth back to its historical norm.
Then what lies ahead for the high world of finance?
The answer begins with the Fed’s policy stance.
To normalize rates, the Fed’s made a policy shift,
They don’t call it a “hike,” it was merely a “lift.”
How fast will it act and what actions come next?
The answers will be found in Fed statements and text.
So my crystal ball’s message to me seems quite clear,
We must take hold of our fate and act without fear.
With this I now end my yearly outlook in rhyme,
And wish everyone joy at this holiday time!.
December 2023
’Twas the night before Christmas ’neath a nearly full moon,
And I knew that Santa would be landing quite soon.
So as in years past, by the fireside did I wait
When the whoosh of his sleigh proved he wouldn’t be late.
He announced his arrival with a chuckle and grin,
And if I was ready, he’d gladly begin
Sharing his insights that were so often profound
His recall of events rarely failed to astound.
He first spoke of surprises he judged most delightful
Inflation, he noted, had turned somewhat less frightful.
But last year’s price hikes weren’t even partly reversed
And with prices so high we still feel that we’re cursed
The job market’s still strong, unemployment’s still low,
So, consumer spending has continued to grow.
And from the comfort of home more people now work
Making them feel like they’ve won a valued new perk.
Santa laughed at those who deemed this a soft landing
He chortled: “That means we’re not moving but just standing!”
“Be they hard or soft, landings come at a flight’s end,
While staying aloft means expansion will extend.”
But not all sectors have fared as well as the rest,
The housing market, for one, has been put to the test.
With mortgage rates standing near a thirty-year high,
Far fewer home-seekers have been able to buy.
High int’rest rates are now the markets’ obsession,
They fear a Fed misstep might bring on recession.
Markets too send signals the Fed’s often heeded
When it sorts market “wants” from what’s really needed.
The markets now hope Fed tight’ning’s come to an end
But still-high inflation do high bond yields portend.
So the war on inflation has not yet been won
And the Fed dare not proclaim its job is now done.
Policy mistakes are not the Fed’s turf alone.
Big government too has for much to atone.
Budget control’s been a myth for decades and counting
As spending runs wild, red-ink and debt keeps mounting.
DEI, ESG and too many things “woke”
Have set many good firms on a path to go broke.
Crime and corruption has dulled some big cities’ pull
Leaving too many buildings more empty than full.
“No more fossil-fuel cars” is something we’ve been told
But dealers have thousands of EVs not being sold.
Mandates like this rarely prove to be much of a fix,
We’d be better off using just carrots and sticks.
The craze over crypto has cooled or so it seems
Instead AI’s the stuff of the tech sector’s dreams.
It’s e’en caught the fancy of my overworked elves
And they’re making more now than before by themselves.
Then Santa turned angry, and his voice loudly raged
Cursing the wars in which much of the world’s now engaged.
“This is just madness with neither reason nor rhyme!”
Still, he swore he’d not let it spoil this holiday time.
And then he declared he’d said enough for one night,
“’Tis time I resume my yearly Christmas eve flight!”
In that instant he bid me farewell for this year:
“May your days bring you plenty of hope, joy and cheer!
Twas the night before Christmas
December 2022
”Twas the night before Christmas, the year twenty-two,
I was ready at last and had naught more to do.
My tree stood bedecked with bulbs and lights shining bright
Like a beacon for Santa that dark wintry night.
From a short nap by the fire, I woke in surprise
And found myself gazing at big, round, cheery eyes.
At once, I knew they were Santa’s – he’s really here,
And ready, I thought, to spread some holiday cheer.
But instead, Santa began to loudly speak out
On a wide range of things he’d been thinking about.
“This year’s been hard,” he said, “as I’m sure you well know.
Inflation’s too high and growth is painfully slow.”
“My supply chain is still clogged – it’s totally jammed
And long overtime hours, have the elves feeling slammed.”
“Those elves, who ’round the clock do so faithfully toil,
Suffer the cold in my shop with no heating oil.”
“We’ve been told that from fossil fuel we must abstain
So a carbon-free world we might someday obtain.”
“Not using oil now is both stupid and tragic.
Because only my sleigh is powered by magic.”
Santa’s voice got louder, his cheeks turned rosy red
As he harshly decried dumb mistakes by the Fed.
“It kept interest rates too low for way too long
And its buying up bonds just compounded the wrong."
“While the Fed dithered, inflation got out of hand,
Forcing it at last to take a much stronger stand.
And now the Fed’s pushing rates steadily higher,
So that price expectations don’t also catch fire.”
“All this makes the Fed look like that nasty old Grinch
As rising rates have borrowers feeling the pinch.
So high mortgage rates threaten a deep housing slump
As new lending stalls and mortgage foreclosures jump.”
“This sharp rise in rates is a heavy toll taking
So deeper troubles might well be in the making.
Indeed, the yield curve is so steeply inverted,
It predicts a recession can’t be averted.”
Santa spoke then of other things he views with alarm
That threaten our way of life with unbounded harm.
He lamented aloud the mess at the border
And how unpunished crime wreaks civil disorder.
But Santa too noted that some things have improved.
Covid’s less a threat though not completely removed.
In myriad ways we’ve slowed the virus’s spread,
But the lockdowns made problems that still lie ahead.
The craze over crypto has long seemed confusing,
So the FTX failure seems most amusing.
At that, Santa let out a deep hearty chuckle,
As his fat belly jiggled o’er his belt buckle.
But when Santa quit laughing his words got more stern
Noting that from failures there’s so much we can learn.
“Follow this simple rule in the years just ahead,
Avoid too risky assets, seek safe ones instead.”
But then in a snap Santa declared his job done,
“I must leave here and resume my Christmas eve run.”
And as he flew off into the wintry night air
“Merry Christmas to all!” he did loudly declare.
------------------------------
Twas the night before Christmas
December 2021
’Twas the night before Christmas, now just hours away,
But Santa had problems with his magical sleigh.
His reindeer were hungry and not ready to fly,
Their feed was lost in the broken chain of supply.
Ships by the score were for weeks unable to reach
The east port of Savannah or the west in Long Beach.
When, at last, Santa found food for his hungry herd,
Their long wintry ride now could proceed undeterred.
And so, he set out on this cold Christmas eve night,
Determined to bring the world great joy and delight.
But as large snowflakes below him drifted and swirled,
He began pondering the weird state of the world.
He saw it firsthand o’er the long Texas border
Where the scene was one of chaotic disorder.
The lack of control seem’d such a sorry disgrace,
With thousands of refugees all over the place.
So much has changed during these last harried two years,
As Covid panic took hold on great waves of fear.
Governments had decreed ’cross states, cities and towns,
Strict new sets of rules and most distressing lockdowns.
By, in effect, putting so much commerce on ice,
These actions would exact a brutally high price.
But no mandated rules or strictures unbending,
Have done much to hasten the pandemic’s ending.
When Big Pharma brought out new vaccines at “warp speed,”
We hoped a jab or two would be all that we’d need.
But then came Delta and its breakthrough infection,
And the caseload spike raised new fears and dejection.
In this new Covid world, there’s unending distress,
That’s made our whole economy one giant mess.
Of great concern is the high rate of inflation
Caused by the Fed’s excess of money creation.
For nearly two years the Fed had propped up demand,
And let its balance sheet too rapidly expand.
It also misjudged inflation’s early uptick,
Blaming transitory factors it said wouldn’t stick.
But now the Fed Chair’s singing a bit diff’rent tune,
Admitting high inflation won’t go away soon.
So the odds now tilt to an earlier tight’ning,
A prospect the markets will likely judge fright’ning.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s urging a new spending spree
Claiming his “build back better” plan will be debt-free.
But most of us know that simply cannot be true,
There will always be some cost whatever we do.
Like aid that’d been given those whose jobs had been lost,
Brought unforeseen dangers and surprising high cost.
For when lockdowns were eased, some chose still not to work
Preferring instead to keep their jobless-pay perk.
So supply behind demand continues to lag,
And the broken supply-chain’s an on-going drag.
In truth, big-spending plans are needed no longer
But more freedom would likely help things get stronger.
But the state of the world Santa could ponder no more,
It was time to get back to his Christmas eve chore.
And I heard him cry out in a voice loud and clear,
“To all, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!”
-------------------------------------------
’Twas the night before Christmas
December 2020
’Twas the night before Christmas, all calm and serene,
As moonlight bathed the marsh grass in a silv’ry sheen.
But my spirit was troubled and lacking in cheer
For we’d come to the end of a truly bizarre year.
First, we’d endured a month-long impeachment trial
Brought by those annoyed mainly by Donald Trump’s style.
Although for acquittal most Senators voted
To Trump’s removal would his foes stay devoted.
At the year’s start, our economy was quite strong,
But no one foresaw how fast it’d go terribly wrong.
For, unseen to all, a global pandemic did loom
That would bring a quick end to our decade-long boom.
Hoping to avert a fate we’d all come to dread,
We halted most commerce to slow the Covid’s spread.
With shutdowns and lockdowns the world over decreed,
Economies collapsed with incredible speed.
Policymakers quickly sprang into action
Budgeting trillions to give spending some traction
The Fed did its part, setting interest rates low
And vowing also to let its balance sheet grow.
That these bold and quick actions did help I’m quite sure,
But the pandemic’s left wounds that will surely endure.
Dining and travel could take years to recover,
While new ways of spending we’ll surely discover.
School closures and remote learning have come at high cost
And it’ll take years to make up what our school kids have lost.
The real estate market has also been altered,
As big cities shrink ’cause their leaders have faltered.
We’ll keep meeting remotely with Facetime or Zoom ,
Though something gets lost when we’re not in the same room.
Social distance and masking have become the new norm
And we’re told the virus will spread unless we conform.
Daily, we heard the count of deaths and new cases
All duly sorted by region, ages, and races.
Rarely though did the press give context or perspective,
So the policy response too oft proved defective.
The self-righteous claimed we must -- “follow the science.”
And insisted their rules get total compliance.
But true science is complex with many dimensions,
That advances through debate and often dissensions.
And if a pandemic wasn’t enough of a curse,
Late in the Spring things took a turn for the worse.
When Mister George Floyd died ’neath the knee of a cop
The outrage that followed brought chaos no one could stop.
Protesters and marchers in cities large and small
Cried out demands of “equal justice for all.”
But too often all that hollering and hooting
Gave way to lawless riots, arson and looting.
This deadly brew of disease and social unrest
Has put long-held traditions and norms to the test.
And when we tried voting modes not used in the past,
We found more ballots than ever had somehow been cast.
Trump challenged the outcome through appeal and recount
But Biden’s vote margin prov’d too wide to surmount.
So early next year a new President takes charge,
Still the challenges ahead remain just as large.
Our future will again be more hopeful and bright,
When, at last, we can end this dread Covid blight.
And thanks to “Warp Speed,” that day soon may arrive,
And, once more in good health we will prosper and thrive.
December 15, 2019
'Twas the Night Before Christmas
’Twas the night before Christmas year twenty-nineteen
And the house is all decked out in white, red and green.
I could hear distant church bells so faintly ringing
While nearby carolers roamed joyously singing.
With white-tailed bucks prancing ’cross my well-trimmed front yard
’Twas a scene you might find on some holiday card.
But this peaceful setting couldn’t stay my wand’ring mind
So I now ponder’d the year we’re leaving behind.
I’m someone who’s spent life by markets distracted
So it’s easy to guess where my thoughts were attracted
The soaring stock market has brought both wonder and awe
Almost defying economic logic and law.
Our economy’s been good if not quite roaring
But strong enough to keep those stock prices soaring.
So the stock market, like some fast rising tide
Has brought improvements ranging so far and so wide.
Unemployment’s the lowest in fifty long years,
As an abundance of jobs has shattered old fears.
With confidence high, folks are happily spending
But bus’ness investment has downward been trending.
Amidst much uncertainty ’bout tariffs and trade,
Many investments were either shelved or delayed.
And an oil-drilling pause was a bit overdue
But it’s quite likely a pick-up soon will ensue.
The Fed cut rates when the yield curve inverted
So an ominous downturn could be averted
And now the Fed thinks it’s done just quite enough
But stands ready to act if the going gets rough.
While our economy has continued to grow
Nearly everywhere else growth’s been painfully slow.
Even where int’rest rates below zero remain,
Economies continue to struggle and strain.
Meanwhile in Britain, Brexit seems likely now done
The argument is over – the Tories have won.
And soon all of Europe will face some big change
To long-standing rules that soon must they rearrange.
Our flound’ring government’s too a source of distress,
Overlooking big problems it ought to address.
So government spending remains out of control,
With unfunded entitlements that’re taking a toll.
And while tax receipts have been steadily rising,
Reaching budget balance takes program downsizing.
But these issues languish as Congress spends too much time
Searching for some Trump misdemeanor or high crime.
So this impeachment obsession comes at a cost,
That’s taken the form of opportunities lost.
So the news cycle grinds on with little or no heed.
To real issues whose solutions we very much need.
In all of this lie the keys to the coming election
So on what grounds will voters base their selection?
If this coming election tracks those of the past
“It’s the economy, stupid!” says how votes will be cast.
Now this crystal-ball gazing’s making me weary
So it’s time for a wish I hope you’ll find cheery
May the new year ahead bring you joy and good health
And a market that continues growing your wealth.
----------------------
December 16, 2018
’Twas the Night Before Christmas
by
David H. Resler
’Twas the night before Christmas and a nearly full moon
Lit the night sky for Santa, who’d be here quite soon.
As I waited, I pondered the wondrous past year
And all of the things that gave me so much to cheer.
Into compartments all the year’s news did I sort
So I could form, in my mind, this year-end report,
Which would help -- as in so many Christmas eves past --
Provide the backdrop for my year-ahead forecast.
I look first to the markets for critical clues
Because they are quite good at processing the news.
One year ago, for instance, the bull market implied
An economy whose vigor could not be denied.
But now the markets’ message looks a bit muddled
Leaving us all more than a tad bit befuddled.
As investors react to news deemed most deserving
They’ve wrought wild stock market swings oh so unnerving.
Though most data show the economy’s still strong
There’s also a growing list of what might go wrong.
Topping the list is much slower growth overseas
And fears ‘bout a trade war amplify this unease.
Trump says “fair” is key to a free-trade world order
And he wants a big wall to strengthen our border.
While his threats of new tariffs the market despises
His tough talk has too brought some welcome surprises.
A new Mexico-Canada trade deal’s been done
And from China some concessions seem to be won.
But some still think these tactics pose too grave a threat
When foreigners hold so much of our nation’s debt.
’Bout the Fed, President Trump too tweets his concern
But the past teaches lessons he’d do well to learn.
The Fed must be free to set its own policy course
Without seeming to bow to political force.
But now the Fed’s struggling with what words it should use
To guide expectations ‘bout its policy views.
But there isn’t much worth in these semantic debates
’Cause the Fed must let facts show the right path for rates.
So if job growth is strong while inflation stays low
A slow rise in rates would let the economy grow.
But if the now-flat yield curve begins to invert
The Fed would wisely heed this recession alert.
But for now it seems that the future we face
Is for growth to remain at a moderate pace.
And when into my crystal ball I more deeply gaze
I see myriad things that are sure to amaze.
I see scientists harvesting data from Mars
While here on Earth we’re riding in driverless cars.
Five-G internet will be the new wireless norm
And medical advances will health care transform.
Artificial intelligence is such a big thing
I can’t even imagine what all it will bring.
But like most things past science advances have brought,
Improving our welfare is more likely than not.
This future world will be here sooner than later
To make our future Christmas eves even greater.
So with “Joy to the World” I wish all a good night
May the New Year bring you joy and endless delight.
------------------------
December 18, 2017
A Visit from Santa
by
David H. Resler
’Twas the night before Christmas at nearly high tide
In the bright moonlight, the marsh seemed endlessly wide
In awe and enthralled by this peaceful night scene
My eyes grew heavy and I felt calm and serene.
Then in this half-conscious state I sensed something weird.
Was I just dreaming or had Santa really appeared?
I had my answer when the old man finally spoke:
“I’ve brought you an odd gift – don’t think it’s a joke”
“I’ll give you my take on this year now nearly passed,”
“In hopes it will help you make a better forecast.”
Although my forecasting days long ago ended
I accepted the offer he’d kindly extended.
What I tell you right now I did not fantasize
This tale is the one seen through old Santa’s eyes.
His smile grew broader and his bright eyes opened wide
When he spoke of the stock market’s sky-rocket ride.
“Stock prices,” he said “keep reaching new record highs,”
“ ’Cause the economy’s been such a pleasant surprise.”
As business got stronger, more workers were hired,
People felt good and soon a boom in spending transpired.
So at its fastest in years did G-D-P grow,
And unemployment now stands at a two-decade low.
But some skeptics think this is all mere illusion --
And just the result of some collective delusion.
Just one year ago did these same “experts” opine --
The economy would falter and stock prices decline.
These doubters said then the markets must reckon with Trump
And when they do, we’ll slide into another deep slump.
But Santa and I think they’ve still got it all wrong
Scaling back poor regulations helped bus’ness get strong.
And of tax cuts and reforms the markets take heed
So G-D-P growth now seems to be picking up speed.
Santa then laughed that bitcoin’s price has gone berserk
Proving that block-chains as money really won’t work.
Speaking of money, policy is being re-set
To ensure that inflation remains not a threat.
Janet Yellen, who soon will depart as Fed Chair,
Showed patience that gave markets time to repair.
Her successor, Jay Powell, will likely take the same tack
Trying to ensure we stay on a healthy growth track.
Santa then chuckled ’bout how last year’s election
Has left many Trump foes feeling boundless dejection
So daily they grow more angry and bitter
As Trump taunts and provokes them by “tweeting” on Twitter
Santa noted too the failure of health-care reform
Was partly ‘cause Trump, as deal-maker, failed to perform.
The press seems obsessed by “facts” falsely created
So real policy issues are rarely debated
And as all sides focus on their arcane details,
They never make hard choices so gridlock prevails.
Our government’s now such a swamp – a partisan mess,
And that puts our future at grave risk of distress
Then without warning Santa looked tired and beat
And said that back north to the Pole he now must retreat.
As I thanked him profusely and bade him farewell
I swore that his Yule-tide message I’d happily tell.
I heard him shout as northward on a jet ski he sped,
“Merry Christmas and best wishes for the New Year Ahead!
--------------------------
December 15 ,2016
Hope Not Despair
by David Resler
’Twas the night before Christmas, the stars shining bright
Would light Santa’s way through the dark wintry night.
And I, with my shopping all done, sat down at last
To ponder some strange things from the most recent past.
For when I look back on the year twenty sixteen
I wonder in awe at things never before seen.
Mother Nature, for one, caught my full attention
With damage from Matthew too awesome to mention.
But mostly my thoughts on this brisk holiday eve
Turned to matters I still find so hard to believe.
And that was the rise of a political novice
Who will soon hold the world’s most powerful office.
When Donald Trump first did his intentions declare
Some saw just a TV star with wild golden hair.
The experts and pundits were vocal and quite sure
That this gadfly’s campaign could never endure.
His ideas, they said, were just bluster and bluff
But to his supporters Trump seem’d solid and tough.
He’s “No Mister Nice Guy” and they wanted a change
From the “too PC” world that’s so foreign and strange.
One by one, Trump mocked his foes as bad, worse, and worst
Vowing he alone would “put America first.”
It matter’d not if sometimes he’d get his facts wrong.
Trump voters cared only that his message was strong.
And after defeating the large G-O-P field
Trump, on election night, forced Hillary to yield.
Now the election’s over but what lies ahead?
The markets see hope but the Trump-haters see dread.
In the days since this year’s big election surprise
Stock prices keep on climbing to new record highs.
Such hope seems based on a judgement that’s sound
That a pro-growth policy mix soon will be found.
Less intrusion from government lies at the core,
With tax cuts and health care reforms also in store.
Pooling public and private funds we will invest
To make our roads, airports and bridges the world’s best.
The Trump team pledges too it will regulate less
And peel back the red-tape that’s an anti-growth stress.
The markets too it seems have reached the conclusion
That Trump will end lobby and crony collusion.
But not all of Trump’s plans deserve full-throated praise,
’Cause growth will be slower if new tariffs we raise.
And Trump must speak from his “bully-pulpit” with care
Trusting markets to sort out what’s right and what’s fair.
With stock market prices reaching ever new highs
The dollar’s FX value continues to rise.
So tricky policy choices soon must be made
If Mister Trump still wants better balance in trade.
.
The new President too must learn to live with a Fed
That steers its own course and will not be led.
And precisely because the outlook’s now brighter
The Fed’s once again setting credit terms tighter.
This strange unknown future has my head all a-spin
But I’m certain some big changes soon will begin.
But whatever’s on tap in the coming new year
Let’s embrace our future with hope and not fear.
---------------------------
December 19, 2015
My Crystal Ball from Santa
by
David H. Resler
’Twas the night before Christmas, the moon was near full,
Lifting the midnight high tide with its strong lunar pull.
As it cast a soft glow ’cross the low-country marsh,
The gentle salt-laden breeze felt soothing not harsh.
To my old Yankee eyes it seemed all so unreal,
But with a snow-free Christmas I’ll happily deal.
And whether warm air or cold on this winter night,
I just knew Santa’s red sleigh would soon be in sight.
And sure enough over the soft breeze could I hear,
Santa’s loud voice commanding his team of reindeer.
In wonder and awe I just stood there and stared
As the old elf held out a gift that for me he’d prepared.
When I asked, “What have you there? Is it for me?”
The jolly old man chuckled and said “Open and see.”
When I undid the bow on his neat little gift,
I found a large crystal ball that from its box did I lift.
Santa said then “Look deep in this magical ball,
And you’ll see what lies ahead for you -- and for all. ”
I did as he said and on this globe fix’d my gaze
And here’s what I saw in that orb’s milky white haze.
Instead of recession that’s some six years gone past,
I see very slow growth that seems likely to last.
And though the jobless rate’s now the lowest in years,
This new labor market is still fostering fears.
Because income from wages is still very weak,
Too many people see their own future as bleak.
And with an election year about to begin
This sad state of commerce is the focus of spin.
Jobs and unequal income do some try to conflate,
But the links are complex and don’t simply equate.
And some demagogues blame world trade for our woes,
Seeing other nations not as partners but foes.
But their argument’s wrong in both theory and fact.
Trade benefits all when in self-int’rest we act.
Still all can agree that we need not be content
With a growth rate that’s stuck at a mere two percent.
So I’m glad that in all this crystal-ball-gazing,
I saw how to reach a path far more amazing.
Back to a far simpler world we must find a way
Where growth-sapping forces can be just kept at bay.
From banking to health care to all sorts of commerce,
An excess of rules often makes matters much worse.
Our tax code’s too complex -- it is truly a mess.
It skews market signals and puts the system in stress.
If regulation and taxes we just could reform,
We might just get growth back to its historical norm.
Then what lies ahead for the high world of finance?
The answer begins with the Fed’s policy stance.
To normalize rates, the Fed’s made a policy shift,
They don’t call it a “hike,” it was merely a “lift.”
How fast will it act and what actions come next?
The answers will be found in Fed statements and text.
So my crystal ball’s message to me seems quite clear,
We must take hold of our fate and act without fear.
With this I now end my yearly outlook in rhyme,
And wish everyone joy at this holiday time!.